To all the investors, advertisers, users, founders, entrepreneurs, businesses, marketers who are just reacting to Twitter s____ show, Let us tell you why Twitter will become a trillion dollar platform. The noise and the chaos is distracting and entertaining now but when you assess the fundamentals of what Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and his goons (hopefully good wise talented people) can do with Twitter. . .the possibilities are endless. However it could just self destruct to waste.
The journey of this future analysis of Twitter begins with imagining thinking like Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Andreessen Horowitz, Investors, founders, consumers, marketers, governments, news media, normal users, extreme users, fake users and the trolls.
For those who are not familiar with the word, Trolls relating to Social Media.
‘Troll’ is a person with the intention to create conflicts and controversy like generating provocative debates, insults, threats, misinformation, lies…etc for different reasons.
As well as evaluating social, economic, and technological trends. The insights being provider are just general information and are not meant as investment advice.
When it comes to Twitter “Social Media businesses”, we believe we see huge opportunity around the world and also because we were curious to see if , in the financial position, we would had invested in helping to buy Twitter? We dive a little deeper and provided some insights below.
As always, we welcome credible investors, venture capitalist, angels, lawyers, bankers, accountants, and founders’ thoughts or conversation. Please feel free to message us and if you need business services like complimenting your VC pipeline or SMB marketing…..reach out to myself or bjmannyst.com via mbhvim.com.
QUICK QUESTIONS TO THINK ABOUT
- “Think about it…, no one spends $44 Billion dollars with out some kind of vision, plan, agenda, goal” – Manny of GreatestFounders™
- Question, did Elon Musk buy Twitter for a business agenda or personal agenda?
- Why didn’t he just buy Reddit when Reddit revenue and usage statistics are way better than Twitter?
- Another question to ask, is why does a person like Elon Musk want a social communication platform, when he runs a Electric Automotive Company, Space Company and Satellite Internet division?
All the tone in the media news are just noise. It’s like when everyone was saying Apple will never beat BlackBerry or EV will never become popular. Then a company rose to prove them all wrong. Elon, Jack, and investors are creating something 100x better than Twitter, …at least we really hope so.
2021 TWITTER KEY STATS
- Twitter generated $5 billion revenue in 2021, an 35% increase year-on-year
- 92% of Twitter’s revenue came from advertising in 2021
- Twitter posted a net loss of $221 million in 2021, an 80% reduction on the $1.1 billion loss it reported in 2020
- Twitter has 206 million daily active users and 38 million users in the United States (possibly dropping in 2022)
- It did generate about $570 million from data licensing
- Twitter has 17% users come from the US
- Twitter revenue by region is made of US which is 50% of the company’s revenues
- Twitter seems to attract high amount of 35 – 44 years old so appeal to Gen Z is minimal
- Twitter has one of the highest gender disparities out of all social networks, with 68.5% of all users being male
ELON MUSK PERSONALITY TYPE
- Elon Musk’s personality is introversion, intuition, thinking, judgement (INTJ)
- Looks beyond what is visible to others
- When everyone sees a dead bird I bet you he sees something worth more than $44 Billion dollars.
- Execution in the face of challenge.
- Relies more on rationality than his emotions
- INTJ are determined and resilient even in the face of obstacles
- Can find and produce lots of ideas due to intuition
- An extreme do or die work ethic
- Most often chooses a challenging projects that seems unachievable to others
- Lives an unbalanced life
- ” He has selected three major areas, namely space, clean energy and the internet. Elon Musk wants to make a big difference in these core areas.” (According to him)
- Believes In hiring fresh talent and trusts them to give their best
- Elon Musk possesses the ability to think at the system level of design and processes meaning he can breakdown any output.
- He knows exactly what he wants then leads and he’s not afraid to work with them.
- Elon Musk gets his hands dirty
- He loves getting into the details of his innovations and according to him, there is no other way of knowing the details than to work the details yourself.
- Elon Musk believes in self-analysis and critical thinking about oneself.
- He has invested all his savings in ventures that he has faith in, at the risk of going broke.
- He believes that you need to make sacrifices when you really like what you do.
- The ability to focus on signals not noise
- Speaks his mind
- Not afraid to fight back
- Willing to have fun and not take himself too seriously
- A little impulsive with his communication
- Occasionally erratic behavior
- Loves humanity and wants to see good in the world
TWITTER MAKING MONEY IN THE SHORT TERM
There’s very little way to attract advertisers when the house is crumbling however if Twitter leans to conservative he could eventually attract conservative brands and alienate Liberal brands. Just like what Fox News is to Republican.
Elon took over and everything and everyone wants to blow spoke.
[“Hours before news broke on Thursday that he had completed his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, Elon Musk wrote an open letter to advertisers stressing that he doesn’t want the platform to become a “free-for-all hellscape.” ]
Some are predicting advertisers will continue running for the exit door faster
Some have said Twitter had become too toxic to be associated with any major brands
Musk wants free-speech however who has the authority to decide what is or not ?
The conservative groups claim pre-Elon Twitter leans more left liberal values
- Most marketers are terrified of having their ads run alongside toxic content
- Elon Musk wants to make the platform less reliant on advertisers
- The reality is that about 90% of Twitter’s revenue comes from advertising
- Musk has said content rules won’t change until a new content moderation council is appointed
- Twitter doesn’t have the growth in users
- Most advertisers have paused their advertising
- Some fear Elon may make Twitter experience even worst
- If advisers or celebrities pick the wrong side they may face boycotting
- Elon Musk is well supported by conservative politicians
Therefore, the threat to their revenue in short term to mid term because there’s a chance a lot of back-end changes may need to be addressed. Some major learning curve for the future management teams. Paying user subscribers will be a tiny percentage of revenue unless they add value like LinkedIn.
“The existing version of Twitter Blue only had a little more than 10,000 subscribers, according to Platformer, and the new version will be 37.5 percent more expensive, requiring verified account holders to pay $8 a month to keep their blue check mark.”
FORMER TWITTER FOUNDER & CEO SUPPORTS ELON & A NEW TWITTER?
There’s one thing most founders know and it’s that they don’t take handing control to their baby lightly. According to reports. Jack Dorsey the founder of Twitter had rolled over his 2.4% stake valued at close to $1 Billion into the new Elon ran company. So instead of taking cash, Jack basically reinvested his stake.
- Dorsey and Musk are believed to be good friends.
- Dorsey has tweeted that he doesn’t “believe anyone should own or run Twitter,” explaining that he believes it should be a public good.
- Dorsey has said, “a new platform is needed. It can’t be a company. This is why I left.”
- Musk has asked Jack what the platform should look like and Dorsey has stated that it should be “an open source protocol” and not rely on “an advertising model,”
- Dorsey has said that Twitter “should never have been a company,”
- A decentralized Twitter Musk recommends
- “Dorsey launched a beta test of a new, decentralized social media app called Bluesky that could eventually compete with Twitter.” or merge with twitter.
Note: In our opinion, Jack & Elon are not taking on re-invention of Twitter for money sake but for a higher social good that will outlast them and be financially self-sustaining.
WHY YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT TWITTER?
Whether you are a user, non-user, investor, celebrity and institution tell us of another unfiltered platform that touches so many voices like a town hall. It’s a powerful tool for good and unfortunately for evil. It’s role in politics and government is powerful.
Facebook casual social, LinkedIn is business social. TikTok is short entertainment with little social, Snapchat it exist. Twitter short content social like a town hall forum.
- You can quickly take the social and economic temperature of any region and nation.
- No heavy gatekeeping and heavy biases when compared to offline alternatives.
- It’s got more active influencers than Facebook
- It’s revealing real time internet trends and helping identify future trends
- It’s a way to identify hate, good, harm, charity and address it instead of it being hidden
- A way to reach those less tolerant of others
- A way to understand those who share and consume conspiracy theories
- Parts of it could become a more trusting source of information
- A place to decide whether paying to be verified and heard is fair?
- A way to learn to improve content moderation in a world of many values and agendas.
KEY BIGGEST THREATS TO TWITTERS FUTURE?
In our opinion, the few biggest threat to Twitters future are alarming however here are few key ones. Starting with: Itself, people moving away from text-based social experience, technology, generational, toxic content, runs out of money, or not able to attract good quality people.
One that recently caught our attention is that Twitter could be so toxic that Apple, & Google decide to take it off their respective app stores.
[“In response, Musk acknowledged that there was a risk that Apple and Google might decide not to further distribute Twitter due to violations of their rules. He then issued a preemptive threat to the two giants of Silicon Valley, by saying that he would manufacture a smartphone, if it came to that, in order to distribute Twitter.”]
[“If Apple & Google boot Twitter from their app stores, @elonmusk should produce his own smartphone,” the Twitter user said. “Half the country would happily ditch the biased, snooping iPhone & Android. The man builds rockets to Mars, a silly little smartphone should be easy, right?”]
[“I certainly hope it does not come to that, but, yes, if there is no other choice, I will make an alternative phone,” the tech mogul announced. ]
THE PROBLEM WITH SOCIAL PLATFORMS LIKE TWITTER
- Obviously the typical issues
- Like every social media platform it is designed to be addictive
- It overwhelms you
- The debates can be enjoyable and some can turn toxic
- Herds of Twitter users can crowd out other information sources
- Maintaining order is challenging
- Harassment and abuse
- Not everyone has good intentions
- The mob mentality that many users adopt is terrifying to the receiver
- The platform has done little to innovate in the face of an increasingly-competitive social media landscape.
- It stifles balanced and necessary conversations
- The tweet can threaten people’s safety
- People are angry about the state of the world
- Twitter is huge in the US, Japan, the UK, and India.
- Not expanding its influence in emerging markets
- It does have ways to cater to countries rules and cultures
- Hate is cloaked in jokes, other expression with minimums consequences
- Scapegoating Musk for the site’s issues and world’s issues
- Short bursts of limited letter characters with no depth
- Twitter is meant for quick emotional expression
- The platform’s seems to favor those who fabricate information so that it goes viral
- You cut through the noise by pushing the boundary with dishonesty
- Behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated.
- Most users don’t use Twitter to form opinions and find information they use it to communicate their agenda which gets validated.
- Any moderation system is not perfect
- Inflammatory interaction is the desire at the expense of thoughtful discussion
- Elon Musk didn’t create Twitter’s problems; he embodies it
- Both security and privacy of users is still a problem
- Many countries and companies are know to use platforms like Twitter to influence opinion or views
- Authorities and well funded groups can use it for good or for evil
- No one seems to handle critics well
- Controlling the flow of information, views, opinion is the dream of some powerful men & women.
- Mr Musk may not be the leader that can turn Twitter to healthy town house
- These are the venting of inequality in power, voice, attention, resources, well being and so on
- Twitter’s current Kings, Queens and Pawns system is not healthy
- Some are prepared to buy followers
- Pay for bots and trolls, and to boost tweets that “disrupt healthy conversations
- Elon wants to make Twitter financially self sustaining and wants a global town hall.
“Verification has nothing to do with wealth, and everything to do with credibility,” – a critic
“The second problem is that, by extending verification to everyone, it’s possible to spoof accounts: anyone can change their photo and name to appear to be, say, Elon Musk – imagine that happening with a verified sticker next to it. You’d have to be extra careful not to get taken in by a fake.”
THE ALTERNATIVES TO TWITTER?
Everyone seems to be mentioning Mastodon.
“Mastodon has seen a surge in growth since Musk purchased Twitter, though it’s still small in comparison. As of today, Mastodon has reached more than 1 million active users and registered nearly 480,000 new users since October 27th, according to Rochko. Twitter has around 237 million total users. “
“The major difference between the platforms is that Mastodon is a decentralized platform created by a crowdfunded nonprofit, meaning that no one person is in complete control. Users are required to join servers specific to a city, country, or interest like gaming, and each server is moderated by its owners, who can delete posts that include hate speech or illegal content.”
Mastodon is a free, open source software that operates similarly to Twitter. it allows users to create, host, and run communities or “instances.” Each instance has a different set of conduct policies determined by the hosts.
And many others that are twitter like are just smaller Twitter experience. Some are focus niche groups.
if you try it, tell us what you think of Mastodon?
THE PEOPLE SUPPOSEDLY INVOLVED IN THE ELON MUSK TWITTER
(According to media reports)
“Musk has a hands-on management style, and has spoken in the past about sleeping in the Tesla factory to make sure work was on schedule. He’s taking a similar approach to Twitter already.”
“Birchall is one of Musk’s closest advisers and has managed the billionaire’s personal fortune as head of his family office since 2016. He’s a former Morgan Stanley wealth manager and helped set up the financing for Musk’s Twitter buyout. “
“Calacanis pitched Musk ideas on how to change Twitter before the acquisition. “
“Sacks has worked with Musk since the two were part of PayPal’s team in the early 2000s. They both made fortunes when the company sold, and Sacks has invested in a string of successful start-ups since then, including Airbnb, Facebook and Uber. He’s also become a conservative media figure and a major Republican donor who helped fund the successful recall of San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin earlier this year. “
“A lawyer at New York law firm Quinn Emanuel, Spiro has become a bigger and bigger figure in Musk’s orbit over the past few years. He helped Musk win a defamation lawsuit for his comments insulting a cave diver he got into a Twitter fight with over the rescue of a Thai boys soccer team several years ago. “
“Krishnan helps lead cryptocurrency investments at Silicon Valley venture capital heavyweight Andreessen Horowitz, which invested $400 million in Musk’s Twitter acquisition. He’s also worked in product development positions at Facebook, Snapchat and, from 2017 till 2019 at Twitter. On Monday he said he was helping Musk out at Twitter “temporarily.” It’s unclear exactly what Krishnan is doing, but he’s the only one in Musk’s team that has actually worked at Twitter before. “
Now to the real beef of this content….
HOW TWITTER BECOMES A $10 TRILLION DOLLAR PLATFORM
***This is a disclaimer. We are simply imagining the possibilities of the future of Twitter and any content presented are just meant as futuristic speculation. As a user or advertiser or investor do your own homework.
Bring Order & Balance
The way Twitter becomes a $10 Trillion Dollar company is to take the good from social platform from around the world and address the bad with powerful mechanism and AI to reduce the reach / impact of the toxic stuff. Elon or other parties needs to clarify what is non-harmful free speech and what is just toxic.
Also creating micro communities instead of one giant hellhole. Some people are pro guns and some are non-gun enthusiast. Some people want conservative views and some don’t.
Generational, Gender & Technology
Also they may need to decide if they want to attract the next generation, more women, etc with text or metaverse or video or voice. Some aspect of using Twitter may have confirmed verified identity. Some aspect may require people to explain the origins of their views.
Growth & Revenue
The $10 Trillion valuation comes when he (Elon & Twitter) organizes the platform/followers in a community, neighborhoods, regional, national, global, micro and macro social economic town-hall that people can express their true pros and true cons about subject matters safely.
Then combine social with peer rating search. Then combine that with the integration of shopping, finance, education, events and lifestyle, and advertising (optional). The anonymize data and trend spotting could be much powerful than Google. Then comes telecommunication that exceeds WhatsApp, WeChat, Phone Carriers, Google, Apple, etc
FUTURE OF COMMUNICATION
- More virtual world
- There may be more challenge to the definition of human
- More identities in the virtual worlds
- Everyone will have multiple version of identity
- AR wearable will be as common as smartphones
- The web will appear layered over the real world
- Typing messages will go away in favor of verbal and auditory communications when users are certain the tech company can give users primary control over data
- Words and visual predictive technologies will aid in essentially creative moment
- As complexity increases, so do the number of problems
- Digital identity theft will be more common
- Government will not be able to keep up with all the development and threats
- Authoritative countries will crave tools that control but people will push back
- Advertising, gaming, and payment processing is going to be common on messaging platforms
- The idea of the super app will become a mission
- Like WeChat various functionalities are woven into everything users need or want
- More immersive convenient co-experiences
- 3D internet browsing experience
- Voice will slowly overtakes texting as the way we interact with devices and apps
- More and more openness of platform to outside developers
- Blockchain identity systems
- More relationship management tools
- Sharing of data to help users do more
- Unifying social with search
- Metaverse Internet
- More Heightened concerns over surveillance
- Desire for digital free zones will grow
- Concern over personal safety will grow
- Digital terror, and crime will grow
- Devices manufacturer will try to own more of the software platform like Apple
- Behavior reflection will be in demand as people observe their past data trails
- Behavior spoofing will become more common
- Everyone has the means to voice their pain 24/7
- There may be virtual Geo borders
- More sub internet or private internet
- Some Internet interaction may require true identity verification
- Human nature is still the same
- Family bonds will weaken if prevention are not there
- Metal health and loneliness issues will continue because things are faster and complex
- More entity exploit polarization
- More and more will become misinformed if creditable sources dwindle
- The rise of virtual nations and digital twins
- What is being social
- The internet will accelerate
- A world where creators and community managers will enter revenue sharing
- More bots on platforms
- More short attention span
- More and more people will complain about their inability to focus
- Users will continue to be the product if new revenue models are not created
- More Artificial Intelligent Machines / Bots / Algorithms will decides what gets amplified
- There will be ways to transfer your followers and audiences to other platforms
- There will be steps to aid you in proper behavior
- Moderate hate speech and disinformation will be done by powerful A.I. moderator that can spot post that fit a criteria then quarantine accounts and limiting post reach
- Anonymity to the general public will be done however some institution will require knowing the ID of the person behind it
- Trust in social network not providing government with info about their account users will erode
- The demand for community and belonging will increase
- People will be able to monetize their data history
- Communicating via AR and VR
- Redefining friendships
“But, I think once Twitter is set on the right path, it will be much easier to manage than SpaceX or Tesla.”——He concluded by saying, “It’s important we take actions to ensure that the light of consciousness continues. We should really understand that consciousness is but a small candle in a vast darkness, and can easily go out.”Elon Musk
FYI, TWITTER RULES PAGE
The reality of managing a social platform like Twitter comes with a lot of challenges. Add to that different nation laws, cultures, views, values, agendas, interest, etc , it really can quickly turn to a hellhole. Just to understand the rules & policies, check out their page. https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies It covers a lot.
The Twitter Rules
Username squatting policy
Platform integrity and authenticity
Crisis misinformation policy
Misleading and deceptive identities policy
Parody, commentary, and fan account policy
Copypasta and duplicate content policy
Platform manipulation and spam policy
Synthetic and manipulated media policy
Civic integrity policy
COVID-19 misleading information policy
Coordinated harmful activity
Financial scam policy
Distribution of hacked materials policy
Ban evasion policy
Safety and Cybercrime
Sensitive media policy
Non-consensual nudity policy
Suicide and Self-harm Policy
Perpetrators of violent attacks policy
Private information policy
Hateful conduct policy
Violent organizations policy
Violent threats policy
Glorification of violence policy
Abusive profile information
Illegal or certain regulated goods or services
Child sexual exploitation policy
Automated copyright claims for live video
Platform Use Guidelines
Content Monetization Standards
How cookies are used on Twitter
Twitter shopping policies
Professional account policy
Guidelines for Promotions on Twitter
Twitter, our services, and corporate affiliates
About government and state-affiliated media account labels on Twitter
About public-interest exceptions on Twitter
Twitter Moments guidelines and principles
Notices on Twitter and what they mean
Our range of enforcement options
Fair use policy
About search rules and restrictions
How to report security vulnerabilities
About Twitter limits
Defending and respecting the rights of people using our service
About rules and best practices with account behaviors
About Twitter’s APIs
Inactive account policy
About country withheld content
Curation style guide
Super Follows policy
Reporting false information in France
Additional information about data processing
Our approach to policy development and enforcement philosophy
About specific instances when a Tweet’s reach may be limited
Your media settings
How to contact Twitter about a deceased family member’s account
Law Enforcement Guidelines
Guidelines for law enforcement
Legal request FAQs
Research and Experiments
About user research at Twitter
What is the Twitter iOS Beta program?
About the Twitter Experiments Program
Basic online safety expectations-Australia
Grievance Officer – India
FYI, COMMON STEPS IN POST M&A
We wanted to understand what would likely be the process in a post merger or acquisition transaction and curious whether Elon really prepared or was it just last minute. Technically with Twitter, there was not a merger. It was straight business purchase.
Further complicating matters of acquiring a business like Twitter is the fact that there are suddenly a lot of stakeholders, regulations, stockholders, policies, R&D, employees, users, customers, governments, concerns, potential sabotage, fraud, theft, existing plans, and etc
- It is much better not do hostile M&A or M&A without majority support
- At the beginning of the M&A process, a company’s executives / founders / owners should gather all of the potential stakeholders involved in a deal’s target, and agree on a due diligence process.
- Due to significant costs, it’s important not to do M&A on impulse
- It is said that the team who did the due-diligence pre M&A should be involve in the post M&A efforts so that work is not completely redone or doing wasteful tasks
- There may be gaps of knowledge and oversights which then needs a secure centralized means of communication and organizing the process
- During M&A some forget the less senior position people and don’t take take inventory of talents & resources available
- It is suggested to care, calm nerves, address concerns and ease people through the process
- In M&A try to make friends not create enemies cause it’s a small world sometimes
- Remember there are many functions and departments to a successful business
- Have a Post M&A checklist
Types of Post-Merger Integration
There are four typical types of post-acquisition integration.
Absorption takes place when the acquiring company completely absorbs the target, including all processes, organizations, and procedures.
Symbiosis only occurs in certain areas to help meet the goals of the merger or acquisition.
The target company is mostly kept self-governing, however, some integration may occur with financial information.
This is when the acquiring company holds ownership of the target company, but they don’t integrate with each other.
[“Ongoing research by consulting firm KPMG suggests that 70% of the value erosion for deals that fail occurs at the post-integration phase.”]